Note that he’s only Prime Minister temporarily. He’s replacing Trudeau and will call elections soon (must be before October) and will go up against Poilievre.
EDIT: Didn’t mean to suggest he won’t win the election. But he’ll have to defend the seat.
Potentially temporarily - the tariffs and 51st state rhetoric has really shifted the polling there from an easy conservative win to a liberal resurgence
That's not really accurate. What we have is one unhinged far left polster (ekos) doing very questionable thing to skew the average and some weirdness out of ipsos occasionally. You can see many of the individual polls here: https://338canada.com/polls.htm
I'm not going to bother posting the deleted twitter rants from the guy that runs ekos, but he's ruining his reputation right now because nobody will believe him after this. Carney got the new guy bump and now that people are getting to know him the polls look uglier for him each week because he's one of the architects of the policies that are so unpopular.
Yes, I provided you a list of the vast majority of polling that has happened going all the way back to 2021. There was even a nice graph that does show the resurgence you are talking about but also mostly shows it's not anywhere near enough to change the result from conservative majority, pretty much except for ekos polling (there are some other shenanigans going on in here but they are kind of minor compared to the bold face lying with statistics ekos is almost certainly doing). This is the new guy bump to largely unknown Carney from terrible trudeau. Carney is getting known now and getting linked to all the same stupid things that pissed people off about trudeau and you will see his poll results slide every week here as that process happens. It's not going to help him that he is going to get absolutely crushed in the english debate and absolutely crushed without realizing it because his french is terrible in the french debate either.
The speeches tonight by Chrétien and Carney were quite powerful and succinct. There were a lot of gems in there that will likely go viral on US and Canada news networks.
But what struck me the most from the speeches was the strong sense of certainty that Carney is the right person to take Canada into the next decade.
“Comprising the largest visible minority group in the region, Toronto is the destination of over half of the immigrants coming from India to Canada, and India is the single largest source of immigrants in the Greater Toronto Area.”
Also schoolboy French speaker, but my assumption is that it's a malapropism: "Les Canadiens sont inquiets du coût de la vie!" would mean "Canadians are worried about the cost of living", and my guess is "cul de la vie" is how some heard his accent.
> Carney tripped up, most notably when he said, “we agree with Hamas,” instead of “we agree about Hamas,” to the delight of Conservatives all over social media.
The next Canadian federal election will be no later than October 20, 2025. Possibly much sooner.
While Carney's party has seen a bump in the polls recently (thanks to Trump) which changed the predicted result from an opposition blowout to merely an opposition lead, Carney is nowhere near as good a communicator as Trudeau and will likely not do well in the polls.
It sounds like the person you’re replying to thinks Carney's Liberal Party is set to lose the upcoming election. Before Trump started going after Canada, the Conservatives seemed like a sure bet to take over Parliament. But since the tariffs came into play, the Liberals have really picked up steam.
No matter where you stand politically, I think Trump isn’t the best at thinking strategically. He could have waited for the next Canadian election and probably ended up with a party in power that would be easier to negotiate with. Now, things are a lot less certain, and it could even give the Liberals a chance to come back stronger.
It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Plus, it’s kind of idiotic that Trump pushed for the USMCA, which looked like a win for him, but these tariffs seem to go against the spirit of that agreement. It makes you wonder why anyone would want to deal with him in good faith moving forward.
> On that note, he announced the carbon tax would soon be cancelled.
I'm super-disappointed. The carbon tax is the most effective market-based mechanism for controlling carbon dioxide emissions. The majority of economists support it, while political support trails behind significantly.
Also, it's disingenuous to only focus on axing the carbon tax without mentioning that the quarterly refund to every resident of Canada will also be axed. The carbon tax is designed as a revenue-neutral program.
He will be replacing it with a different carbon tax. Canada cannot not have a carbon tax as it is part of many of their trade agreements. Of course, this means the opponent party would also have to replace it with some other carbon tax.
Carbon tax is toxic in Canada. Bashing it is like a quarter of the conservative's platform.
There's an interview with the former Minister of Environment who pushed through carbon pricing (https://thetyee.ca/News/2025/02/11/Catherine-McKenna-Intervi... - note this is a thoroughly left leaning newspaper). She notes that she felt the government's failure to properly communicate/advertise about how carbon pricing works (and the refunds I imagine...) left the field wide open for the conservatives to own the messaging and framing.
It's more that it's a dumb idea in the face of other government regulations making it impossible to substitute (looking at you mostly zoning making walking, biking, and public transit best case being extremely inconvenient vs car and severely limiting accommodation choice to mostly very low density car required single family or a very small supply mostly ancient missing middle options or sky scrapers.) This makes the carbon tax need to be very high to change behavior which has knock on effects in the less easily substitutable stuff we all need like food transport that makes every noticeably poorer even when they are getting reimbursed for most to all of their primary carbon tax payments. It doesn't help that close by competitors don't have this tax and can incentivize various companies to leave for greener pastures.
So it's not that it was improperly communicated, pretty much every Canadian understands what is going on. It's that it's dumb without a myriad of other changes to regulation at various other levels of government that should have been changed first. That the feds went at it alone meant it would inevitably be their downfall (all the other really questionable/borderline criminal things this government has done is bonus material)
Can you explain what you mean by making every[one?] noticeably poorer when they have most to all of their payment reimbursed? (for the median individual it is more like "all to more" since the carbon credit is not capped at one's individual carbon tax payments)
There was also estimates for earlier years than 2030 but I don't have the time to dig them up right now and they are also net negative.
They don't have all their payment reimbursed because they pay carbon tax on all their purchases indirectly via buying goods whose price has inflated due to carbon tax on transport, inputs, etc.
For those of us not already determined to vote conservative, the carbon tax was one of the most compelling reasons to vote liberal. It was a well designed policy, even if many people don't understand it.
Since they're both axing the tax anyway, that's one less differentiator which leaves me thinking maybe I should just choose based on who is more likely to pop the real estate bubble.
31% say they won't vote liberals regardless of carbon tax, 23% say they won't vote liberal because of, or partly because of carbon tax, 38% says their liberal support is carbon pricing agnostic, and 8% says carbon pricing makes liberals more attractive.
Interesting to read the perspective of Americans who don't understand that different countries have different election systems, and that Canada doesn't directly elect their PMs.
We need people with more sense than empathy. Closed borders, criminals in prison instead of the streets, etc. I don't care that much about the S&P--I want to walk to lunch without having to dodge homeless encampments. The fundamental purpose of government is to provide an orderly, clean society for the majority, and our government has been doing a bad job of that.
(By not addressing the point, I assume you just support the further destruction of our economy and drastically decreased standard of living in the future? Okay then, moving on to your different point...)
Yes, I agree that we need people with the sense to reject empathizing with performative cruelty and the siren song of fascism. It never ends well.
At this point, we'd be better off with criminals just on the streets instead of also in the White House. The fish rots from the head.
I don't know what you mean by "our government" is doing a poor job at making safe/clean cities. I'm pretty sure we live in different states, and striking a three way balance of carrot-stick-chaos is the job of state and municipal governments.
I sidestep the issue by living somewhere less dense, but yes the general inability to scale American cities while maintaining order and individual freedom is a failure of social technology (one that certainly isn't helped by the aforementioned rotting fish head!). On the other hand, cities have been getting better despite all of the sensationalist reporting - I would much rather walk around NYC in the present day than in the 70's.
But I'd also expect that a lowered standard of living will make cities worse, so perhaps you should actually care about that issue too.
Sorry to hear this news. I don't want to spoil the party, but the bucking heads between both countries, especially as a border town dual-citizen, its only going to make living in the Canada that much more difficult for me. The US economy is 9x bigger and with a population of 45M vs. 325M+ - its crazy. Ontario dominates the political spectrum (just a point of fact, not of affiliation) it doesn't allow for collaboration across the provinces. BC and AB are booming, and Ontario just keeps stagnating their innovation trains and economic prosperity and we're likely to see this continue into the future as Toronto and Ottawa just dictate the population as a whole from a central "neck of the woods" thinking.
God save the King, but at what cost?!
Love you Americans. I'm sorry, we're assholes when it comes to nationalism sometimes, but its just going to be difficult for a few years for us.
> I'm sorry, we're assholes when it comes to nationalism sometimes
Please speak for yourself, as a fellow Canadian. This is not about nationalism, but rather about not giving into a bully. If we start begging for mercy now, things will just get worst. And no, most Canadians do not fear the US invading, as many believe a civil war in the US will happen before that. We also have the luxury of having goodwill among many around the world, so selling our goods will not be an issue but we will obviously have to lower our margins to overcome geographical barriers.
I just want to make it clear for any readers here that GypskyKing716 is not the voice for all Canadians, and his voice is his own, like mine is.
Note that he’s only Prime Minister temporarily. He’s replacing Trudeau and will call elections soon (must be before October) and will go up against Poilievre.
EDIT: Didn’t mean to suggest he won’t win the election. But he’ll have to defend the seat.
Potentially temporarily - the tariffs and 51st state rhetoric has really shifted the polling there from an easy conservative win to a liberal resurgence
That's not really accurate. What we have is one unhinged far left polster (ekos) doing very questionable thing to skew the average and some weirdness out of ipsos occasionally. You can see many of the individual polls here: https://338canada.com/polls.htm I'm not going to bother posting the deleted twitter rants from the guy that runs ekos, but he's ruining his reputation right now because nobody will believe him after this. Carney got the new guy bump and now that people are getting to know him the polls look uglier for him each week because he's one of the architects of the policies that are so unpopular.
Every poll shows a massive liberal resurgence. Only a few suggest that they're currently in the lead.
Yes, I provided you a list of the vast majority of polling that has happened going all the way back to 2021. There was even a nice graph that does show the resurgence you are talking about but also mostly shows it's not anywhere near enough to change the result from conservative majority, pretty much except for ekos polling (there are some other shenanigans going on in here but they are kind of minor compared to the bold face lying with statistics ekos is almost certainly doing). This is the new guy bump to largely unknown Carney from terrible trudeau. Carney is getting known now and getting linked to all the same stupid things that pissed people off about trudeau and you will see his poll results slide every week here as that process happens. It's not going to help him that he is going to get absolutely crushed in the english debate and absolutely crushed without realizing it because his french is terrible in the french debate either.
We need to just deal with some squirrels in the pack looking for nuts, but I think Poilievre if he wins will fix the West Coast problems tuque-svet
The speeches tonight by Chrétien and Carney were quite powerful and succinct. There were a lot of gems in there that will likely go viral on US and Canada news networks.
But what struck me the most from the speeches was the strong sense of certainty that Carney is the right person to take Canada into the next decade.
What did they talk about that gave you this certainty?
Best to see it for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv6JIMtX8Qc
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Care to explain what you mean by that?
“Comprising the largest visible minority group in the region, Toronto is the destination of over half of the immigrants coming from India to Canada, and India is the single largest source of immigrants in the Greater Toronto Area.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asian_Canadians_in_the_G...
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He's on the board at Stripe, by the way.
https://stripe.com/en-jp/newsroom/news/mark-carney-joins-str...
And Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/bloomberg-announces-...
> Mark Carney steps into an unprecedented moment
Allow me to be obtuse, and correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't every moment unprecedented? Like, isn't that how time works?
Certainly the press' use of unprecedented has precedent.
Some things are more predictable than others. The current situation between the USA and Canada lies on the improbable side of the spectrum.
I keep forgetting this is the same Mark Carney that ran the bank of England
And before that, the Bank of Canada.
"Les canadiens et les canadiens sont inquiets du cul de la vie!" --Mark Carney.
The next few years will be delightful.
Okay, my schoolboy French is tres terrible, but am I translating this correctly? "The Canadians and the Canadians are worried about the ass of life"?
Also schoolboy French speaker, but my assumption is that it's a malapropism: "Les Canadiens sont inquiets du coût de la vie!" would mean "Canadians are worried about the cost of living", and my guess is "cul de la vie" is how some heard his accent.
Apparently his French is pretty terrible too.
> Carney tripped up, most notably when he said, “we agree with Hamas,” instead of “we agree about Hamas,” to the delight of Conservatives all over social media.
Years? This guy's tenure will be best measured in weeks.
Why is that?
The next Canadian federal election will be no later than October 20, 2025. Possibly much sooner.
While Carney's party has seen a bump in the polls recently (thanks to Trump) which changed the predicted result from an opposition blowout to merely an opposition lead, Carney is nowhere near as good a communicator as Trudeau and will likely not do well in the polls.
His opponent is a much worse communicator though and can't think on his feet.
It sounds like the person you’re replying to thinks Carney's Liberal Party is set to lose the upcoming election. Before Trump started going after Canada, the Conservatives seemed like a sure bet to take over Parliament. But since the tariffs came into play, the Liberals have really picked up steam. No matter where you stand politically, I think Trump isn’t the best at thinking strategically. He could have waited for the next Canadian election and probably ended up with a party in power that would be easier to negotiate with. Now, things are a lot less certain, and it could even give the Liberals a chance to come back stronger. It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Plus, it’s kind of idiotic that Trump pushed for the USMCA, which looked like a win for him, but these tariffs seem to go against the spirit of that agreement. It makes you wonder why anyone would want to deal with him in good faith moving forward.
> On that note, he announced the carbon tax would soon be cancelled.
I'm super-disappointed. The carbon tax is the most effective market-based mechanism for controlling carbon dioxide emissions. The majority of economists support it, while political support trails behind significantly.
Also, it's disingenuous to only focus on axing the carbon tax without mentioning that the quarterly refund to every resident of Canada will also be axed. The carbon tax is designed as a revenue-neutral program.
He will be replacing it with a different carbon tax. Canada cannot not have a carbon tax as it is part of many of their trade agreements. Of course, this means the opponent party would also have to replace it with some other carbon tax.
Carbon tax is toxic in Canada. Bashing it is like a quarter of the conservative's platform.
There's an interview with the former Minister of Environment who pushed through carbon pricing (https://thetyee.ca/News/2025/02/11/Catherine-McKenna-Intervi... - note this is a thoroughly left leaning newspaper). She notes that she felt the government's failure to properly communicate/advertise about how carbon pricing works (and the refunds I imagine...) left the field wide open for the conservatives to own the messaging and framing.
It is disappointing, but not at all unexpected.
It's more that it's a dumb idea in the face of other government regulations making it impossible to substitute (looking at you mostly zoning making walking, biking, and public transit best case being extremely inconvenient vs car and severely limiting accommodation choice to mostly very low density car required single family or a very small supply mostly ancient missing middle options or sky scrapers.) This makes the carbon tax need to be very high to change behavior which has knock on effects in the less easily substitutable stuff we all need like food transport that makes every noticeably poorer even when they are getting reimbursed for most to all of their primary carbon tax payments. It doesn't help that close by competitors don't have this tax and can incentivize various companies to leave for greener pastures.
So it's not that it was improperly communicated, pretty much every Canadian understands what is going on. It's that it's dumb without a myriad of other changes to regulation at various other levels of government that should have been changed first. That the feds went at it alone meant it would inevitably be their downfall (all the other really questionable/borderline criminal things this government has done is bonus material)
Can you explain what you mean by making every[one?] noticeably poorer when they have most to all of their payment reimbursed? (for the median individual it is more like "all to more" since the carbon credit is not capped at one's individual carbon tax payments)
I mean table 1 in the PBO's report on the subject: https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publications/RP-2425-017-S--distri...
There was also estimates for earlier years than 2030 but I don't have the time to dig them up right now and they are also net negative. They don't have all their payment reimbursed because they pay carbon tax on all their purchases indirectly via buying goods whose price has inflated due to carbon tax on transport, inputs, etc.
For those of us not already determined to vote conservative, the carbon tax was one of the most compelling reasons to vote liberal. It was a well designed policy, even if many people don't understand it.
Since they're both axing the tax anyway, that's one less differentiator which leaves me thinking maybe I should just choose based on who is more likely to pop the real estate bubble.
Fair enough.
But overall polling is pretty clear (this is from Jan 2024, but I imagine it's probably pretty similar now) https://abacusdata.ca/carbon-tax-pollution-pricing-carbon-ac...
31% say they won't vote liberals regardless of carbon tax, 23% say they won't vote liberal because of, or partly because of carbon tax, 38% says their liberal support is carbon pricing agnostic, and 8% says carbon pricing makes liberals more attractive.
Interesting to read the perspective of Americans who don't understand that different countries have different election systems, and that Canada doesn't directly elect their PMs.
Neither does the US (President or PM, which they don't have). ;)
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Nobody thinks this is funny.
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We need people with more sense than empathy. Closed borders, criminals in prison instead of the streets, etc. I don't care that much about the S&P--I want to walk to lunch without having to dodge homeless encampments. The fundamental purpose of government is to provide an orderly, clean society for the majority, and our government has been doing a bad job of that.
(By not addressing the point, I assume you just support the further destruction of our economy and drastically decreased standard of living in the future? Okay then, moving on to your different point...)
Yes, I agree that we need people with the sense to reject empathizing with performative cruelty and the siren song of fascism. It never ends well.
At this point, we'd be better off with criminals just on the streets instead of also in the White House. The fish rots from the head.
I don't know what you mean by "our government" is doing a poor job at making safe/clean cities. I'm pretty sure we live in different states, and striking a three way balance of carrot-stick-chaos is the job of state and municipal governments.
I sidestep the issue by living somewhere less dense, but yes the general inability to scale American cities while maintaining order and individual freedom is a failure of social technology (one that certainly isn't helped by the aforementioned rotting fish head!). On the other hand, cities have been getting better despite all of the sensationalist reporting - I would much rather walk around NYC in the present day than in the 70's.
But I'd also expect that a lowered standard of living will make cities worse, so perhaps you should actually care about that issue too.
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Sorry to hear this news. I don't want to spoil the party, but the bucking heads between both countries, especially as a border town dual-citizen, its only going to make living in the Canada that much more difficult for me. The US economy is 9x bigger and with a population of 45M vs. 325M+ - its crazy. Ontario dominates the political spectrum (just a point of fact, not of affiliation) it doesn't allow for collaboration across the provinces. BC and AB are booming, and Ontario just keeps stagnating their innovation trains and economic prosperity and we're likely to see this continue into the future as Toronto and Ottawa just dictate the population as a whole from a central "neck of the woods" thinking.
God save the King, but at what cost?!
Love you Americans. I'm sorry, we're assholes when it comes to nationalism sometimes, but its just going to be difficult for a few years for us.
> I'm sorry, we're assholes when it comes to nationalism sometimes
Please speak for yourself, as a fellow Canadian. This is not about nationalism, but rather about not giving into a bully. If we start begging for mercy now, things will just get worst. And no, most Canadians do not fear the US invading, as many believe a civil war in the US will happen before that. We also have the luxury of having goodwill among many around the world, so selling our goods will not be an issue but we will obviously have to lower our margins to overcome geographical barriers.
I just want to make it clear for any readers here that GypskyKing716 is not the voice for all Canadians, and his voice is his own, like mine is.
Canada is a top 10 country by GDP, I think they'll be fine.
Ya, but we rely on so much from Sask to Montreal on border money.